The northern Adriatic circulation regimes in the future winter climate

Dunić, Natalija; Supić, Nastjenjka; Sevault, Florence; Vilibić, Ivica (2023) The northern Adriatic circulation regimes in the future winter climate. Climate Dynamics, 60 (11-12). pp. 3471-3484. ISSN 0930-7575

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Abstract

Reliability of climate change projections in coastal and shallow seas may be largely infuenced by complex air–ocean–land interactions, like in the northernmost shelf of the Mediterranean, the Northern Adriatic (NAd). However, classifcation of winter characteristics in the NAd may be simplifed following the observed cross-basin bottom density distributions. Two main types of winter circulation occur: (i) type A, when the basin is strongly afected by the freshwater load and (ii) type B, in which the dense water formation is occurring. Neutral winter circulation type with characteristics between types A and B is called type C. This paper evaluates a usage of such a classifcation in climate models, defnes the best proxy index for the winter NAd characteristics and then quantifes winter regimes in the future climate. The latter is assessed by regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model CNRM-RCSM4 for three diferent scenarios. Acknowledging an ofset in density diferences, the historical climate run perfectly fts the observations. The number of type C circulation, i.e. with low cross-basin density differences, is projected to increase in the future climate, in particular in RCP4.5 scenario. The number of type A circulation is showing a decrease in all climate scenarios, while type B circulation is decreasing in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. As two main circulation types are conjoined with large diferences in biogeochemical properties and fsh stocks, these projected changes may have a substantial impact to the future productivity of this least oligotrophic basin in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Adriatic Sea, prognosis, climate change, circulation
Subjects:	NATURAL SCIENCES > Interdisciplinary Natural Sciences > Marine Science
Divisions:	Center for Marine Research Division for Marine and Enviromental Research
Projects:	Project title Project leader Project code Project type Školjkaši: Arhiva okolišnih promjena u obalnim morskim ekosustavima-BivACME Melita Peharda Uljević; Hana Uvanović; Ivica Vilibić; Daria Ezgeta Balić; Thébault Julien; Milica Mandić; Carlotta Mazzoldi; Hrvoje Mihanović; Bernd R. Schöne; Krešimir Markulin; Jasna Arapov; Ivan Župan; Clea Denamiel IP-2019-04-8542 HRZZ Ekološki odziv sjevernog Jadrana na klimatske promjene i antropogeni učinak-EcoRENA Nastenjka Supić IP-2016-06-4764 HRZZ
Depositing User:	Nastenjka Supić
Date Deposited:	14 Jan 2026 15:16
URI:	http://fulir.irb.hr/id/eprint/10883
DOI:	10.1007/s00382-022-06516-6

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