Effects of climate change on gilthead seabream aquaculture in the Mediterranean

Haberle, Ines; Hackenberger, Domagoj K.; Djerdj, Tamara; Bavčević, Lav; Geček, Sunčana; Hackenberger, Branimir K.; Marn, Nina; Klanjšček, Jasminka; Purgar, Marija; Pečar Ilić, Jadranka; Klanjšček, Tin (2023) Effects of climate change on gilthead seabream aquaculture in the Mediterranean. Aquaculture, 578 . ISSN 0044-8486

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Abstract

Aquaculture of gilthead seabream, arguably the most important finfish aquaculture species in the Mediterranean, faces changing environmental conditions due to faster-than-average climate change in the region. We utilize physiological modelling to estimate effects of moderate and severe climate change on key indices of aquaculture production for all coastal regions of the Mediterranean. Two publicly available global climate change scenarios with daily sea temperature projections serve as forcing for the physiological model during two-year farming cycles representing: (i) reference scenario starting in 2021, (ii) mid-term effects starting in 2051, and (iii) long-term effects starting in 2091. We investigate effects of climate change by analyzing changes in time to fish reaching a market size, feed conversion ratio at the market size, and the weight of the fish and the associated feed conversion ratio after two years of farming. Additionally, we track the number of days with seawater temperatures equal to or greater than 28°C during the two-year period, when gilthead seabream starts experiencing temperature stress. Time to market size generally decreases with climate change from the initial average of 450 days for the reference period by up to 36 %. Feed conversion ratio at market size does not appreciably change with climate change, but it does change for the two-year culturing period for up to 10 %, primarily due to faster growth in warmer sea water, and the correspondingly greater weight achieved over the two-year growth cycle. While the outlook for aquaculture is positive in the mid-term, some indicators show a negative trend in the long-term. The long-term effects of climate change will be greatest in the currently most productive farming regions of the Mediterranean: Levantine, Aegean, and Adriatic seas, and coastal waters of Tunisia. Our analysis focuses on basin-level features, but we provide geospatially referenced simulation results that can be used to analyze effects of climate change in a particular region of interest.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Dynamic Energy Budget; gilthead seabream Sparus aurata; Copernicus climate projection scenarios; feed conversion ratio; time to market
Subjects:	NATURAL SCIENCES > Mathematics NATURAL SCIENCES > Biology NATURAL SCIENCES > Interdisciplinary Natural Sciences
Divisions:	Division for Marine and Enviromental Research
Projects:	Project title Project leader Project code Project type Prilagodba uzgoja bijele ribe klimatskim promjenama-AqADAPT Tin Klanjšček IP-2018-01-3150 HRZZ
Depositing User:	Ines Haberle
Date Deposited:	27 Sep 2023 10:06
URI:	http://fulir.irb.hr/id/eprint/8171
DOI:	10.1016/j.aquaculture.2023.740052

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