Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners

Tojčić, Iva; Denamiel, Cléa; Vilibić, Ivica (2021) Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners. Natural hazards and earth system sciences, 21 (8). pp. 2427-2446. ISSN 1561-8633

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Abstract

This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations, a high- resolution atmosphere–ocean modelling suite, and a stochastic surrogate model. The CMeEWS, which is not operational due to a lack of numerical resources, is used retroactively to reproduce the multiple events observed in the eastern Adriatic between 11 and 19 May 2020. The performances of the CMeEWS deterministic models are then assessed with an innovative method using energy banners based on temporal and spatial spectral analysis of the high-pass-filtered air pressure and sea level fields. It is found that deterministic simulations largely fail to forecast these extreme events at endangered locations along the Croatian coast, mostly due to a systematic northwestward shift of the atmospheric disturbances. Additionally, the use of combined ocean and atmospheric model results, instead of atmospheric model results only, is not found to improve the selection of the transects used to extract the atmospheric parameters feeding the stochastic meteotsunami surrogate model. Finally, in operational mode, the stochastic surrogate model would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms. Due to the uncertainties associated with operational modelling of meteotsunamigenic disturbances, the stochastic approach has thus proven to overcome the failures of the deterministic forecasts and should be further developed.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	meteotsunamis ; early warning systems ; Adriatic Sea
Subjects:	NATURAL SCIENCES > Geophysics
Divisions:	Division for Marine and Enviromental Research
Projects:	Project title Project leader Project code Project type Višegodišnje i dekadne oscilacije Jadranskog mora: opažanja, modeliranje i posljedice Vilibić, Ivica IP-2016-06-1955 HRZZ Školjkaši: Arhiva okolišnih promjena u obalnim morskim ekosustavima Peharda Uljević, Melita IP-2019-04-8542 HRZZ
Depositing User:	Sofija Konjević
Date Deposited:	10 Sep 2021 13:14
URI:	http://fulir.irb.hr/id/eprint/6565
DOI:	10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021

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