Assessing the Interplay Between Climatic Conditions and Olive Phenology Using the Growing Degree Day Model

Belušić Vozila, Andreina; Omazić, Branimir; Telišman Prtenjak, Maja; Bubola, Marijan; Krapac, Marin; Vilibić, Ivica; Goreta Ban, Smiljana (2026) Assessing the Interplay Between Climatic Conditions and Olive Phenology Using the Growing Degree Day Model. International Journal of Climatology, 46 (2). ISSN 0899-8418

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Official URL: http://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70187

Abstract

Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events across the Mediterranean, driven by climate change, present significant challenges for olive cultivation, particularly if traditional soil management practices are not adapted. Croatia, located at the northern edge of the Mediterranean olive-growing zone, represents the northernmost region where olives are cultivated. However, comprehensive agroclimatic studies in Istria (Croatia), especially those examining recent trends in olive tree phenology, remain scarce, providing the main motivation for this research. Our results indicate that rising minimum and maximum temperatures across Istria, particularly in spring, have increased growing degree day (GDD) accumulation during the growing season. This has advanced the onset of key phenological stages and shortened the overall growth period, with the Istarska Bjelica cultivar showing the most pronounced response. To further explore this, a simple GDD model was developed and tested as a prognostic tool for predicting the initiation of phenological stages. The model successfully captured the entire flowering period, performing best with a base temperature of 6 °C. This highlights its strong potential for projecting the onset of olive flowering under future climate conditions and supporting more effective management decisions.

Item Type:

Article

Uncontrolled Keywords:

climate change; GDD; Istria; olive phenology; statistical model

Subjects:

NATURAL SCIENCES > Physics
NATURAL SCIENCES > Geophysics
BIOTECHNICAL SCIENCES > Agronomy

Divisions:

Division for Marine and Enviromental Research

Projects:

Project title	Project leader	Project code	Project type
Agrobioraznolikost - osnova za prilagodbu i ublažavanje posljedica klimatskih promjena u poljoprivredi-	Smiljana Goreta Ban; Branka Salopek-Sondi; Nataša Bauer; Nenad Jasprica; Snježana Kereša	KK.05.1.1.02.0005	EK
WildBioAdapt - divlje biljne vrste u funkciji prilagodbe poljoprivrede i turizma klimatskim promjenama-WildBioAdapt	Boris Marjanović; Dean Ban	KK.05.1.1.02.0030	MZOE

Depositing User:

Ana Zečević

Date Deposited:

06 May 2026 08:44

URI:

https://fulir.irb.hr:/id/eprint/11904

DOI:

10.1002/joc.70187