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Predictability of northern Adriatic winter conditions

Supić, Nastjenjka; Kraus, Romina; Kuzmić, Milivoj; Paschini, Elio; Precali, Robert; Russo, Aniello; Vilibić, Ivica (2012) Predictability of northern Adriatic winter conditions. Journal of Marine Systems, 90 (1). pp. 42-57. ISSN 0924-7963

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Presented results indicate that a long-term (several months ahead) forecast of the winter northern Adriatic conditions is possible and that it can be based on the analysis of meteorological conditions and geostrophic circulation fields of the previous autumn. Using 1981–2007 February data we show that in winters of the type A, salinity in the northern Adriatic is lower and production of phytoplankton higher than in the B type winters. This indicates that the impact of the Po River waters on the northern Adriatic is more pronounced during the A type winters. The two types, A and B, have already been identified on the basis of the bottom density differences between eastern and western part of the northern Adriatic but more precise definition is given here. Based on the data collected during hydrographic cruises in 2000 (type B conditions) and 2001 (type A conditions), we found that the two winters differed in geostrophic circulation patterns as well. Eastward of the Po River delta there was a large cyclonic gyre in 2000 and a large anticyclonic gyre in 2001. Circulation patterns were highly dependent on autumn conditions, with bottom density changes as the most likely triggering cause. Strong surface heat losses and many bora episodes preceded the winter of 2000, while moderate cooling and sirocco events preceded the winter of 2001.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This work was supported by the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia (projects 098-0982705-2707, 098-0982705-2731 and "Projekt Jadran"). The data from the X, Y and Z profiles were collected in the framework of the project "Mucilage formation in the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian seas" (MAT), supported by the Italian Ministry of Environment and partly by the Croatian Ministry of Science and Technology ("Projekt Jadran"). We are grateful to all that contributed to the collection of data and building of the CMR's datasets, particularly to Dr. D. Degobbis, Dr. I. Ivancic, Dr. T. Djakovac and A. Bakota. The crew of the RV "Vila Velebita" is particularly appreciated for help in sampling during the cruises. Suggestions of anonymous reviewers helped us to significantly improve the paper. The authors thank the Ferdi (Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Developpement International) for its publication support.
Uncontrolled Keywords: hydrography; predictability; northern Adriatic Sea
Subjects: NATURAL SCIENCES > Geology
NATURAL SCIENCES > Interdisciplinary Natural Sciences > Marine Science
Divisions: Center for Marine Research
Division for Marine and Enviromental Research
Project titleProject leaderProject codeProject type
Istraživanje i sustavi praćenja neuobičajene dinamike Jadrana-Ivica Vilibić001-0013077-1122MZOS
Matematičko modeliranje cirkulacije i satelitska detekcija graničnih procesa-Milivoj Kuzmić098-0982705-2707MZOS
Mehanizam dugoročnih promjena u ekosustavu sjevernog Jadrana-Robert Precali098-0982705-2731MZOS
Depositing User: Romina Kraus
Date Deposited: 02 Jul 2019 07:47
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.08.008

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