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Identification of Patient Zero in Static and Temporal Networks : Robustness and Limitations

Antulov-Fantulin, Nino; Lančić, Alen; Šmuc, Tomislav; Štefančić, Hrvoje; Šikić, Mile (2015) Identification of Patient Zero in Static and Temporal Networks : Robustness and Limitations. Physical Review Letters, 114 . pp. 248701-1. ISSN 0031-9007

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Detection of patient zero can give new insights to epidemiologists about the nature of first transmissions into a population. In this Letter, we study the statistical inference problem of detecting the source of epidemics from a snapshot of spreading on an arbitrary network structure. By using exact analytic calculations and Monte Carlo estimators, we demonstrate the detectability limits for the susceptible infected-recovered model, which primarily depend on the spreading process characteristics. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the approach in a case of a simulated sexually transmitted infection spreading over an empirical temporal network of sexual interactions.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: patient zero; temporal networks
Subjects: NATURAL SCIENCES > Physics
Divisions: Division of Electronics
Theoretical Physics Division
Project titleProject leaderProject codeProject type
Foundational Research on MULTIlevel comPLEX networks and systems-MULTIPLEXUNSPECIFIED317532EK
Enhancement of the Innovation Potential in SEE through new Molecular Solutions in Research and Development-INNOMOLUNSPECIFIED316289EK
Hrvatska zaklada za znanostUNSPECIFIEDI-1701-2014HRZZ
Depositing User: Nino Antulov-Fantulin
Date Deposited: 09 Dec 2016 14:22
DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.114.248701

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